Jan 7, 2009 / EU & International
Lull in oil price escalation will not last
Experts of the Hamburg World Economy Institute (HWWI) predict that oil prices will rise again in the coming year. The times of cheap oil are gone and gasoline and diesel will become noticeably more expensive. For 2009 HWWI President Thomas Straubhaar predicts oil prices between 50 and 60 dollars per barrel, while in 2010 the price could be between 60 and 80 dollars. Currently the price of a barrel is 33.87 dollars for type WTI. "Everyone involved in this issue knows that the era of cheap energy and raw materials has expired," states Straubhaar in an interview in the periodical "Die Welt".
Despite the worldwide economic crisis, the HWWI expert predicts that the rising economies such as China, Russia and Brazil will suffer little under the weak world economy and will therefore drive the demand for oil and gas in 2009. Straubhaar does not anticipate new peaks such as in 2008, when a barrel reached 145 dollars. Likewise oil prices as low as currently are also unrealistic. Straubhaar sees this prognosis as a motivator for companies to invest in energy efficiency.
Straubhaar assesses the sector of alternative energy and energy efficiency as very resistant to economic fluctuations: The high price of oil will drive the demand for innovations in alternative energy sources, and so this branch could find new markets worldwide and thereby become an economic locomotive in an overall difficult phase of the world economy, according to Straubhaar.
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